Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 14: Focus: The Physics of Power-Grids – Fluctuations, Synchronization and Network Structures (joint session DY / SOE)
SOE 14.14: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 22. März 2017, 19:00–19:15, ZEU 160
Langevin analysis of large scale power outages - A case study — •Frank Ehebrecht1 and Oliver Kamps2 — 1Institut für Theoretische Physik, WWU Münster, Germany — 2Center for Nonlinear Science, WWU Münster, Germany
The anticipation of critical transitions in complex systems is a field of active research in such diverse disciplines as ecology, climate research or engineering [1]. In [2] large scale power outages are considered as critical transitions in the operation of power grids. It was shown for the large scale power outage on August 10 in 1996 in the USA that the event could be anticipated from critical fluctuations of the system frequency.
In this talk we present results from the analysis of two different data sets of the system frequency from the same event that have been measured at two different positions in the grid. We show that critical fluctuations seem not to be a reliable indicator for a critical transition in the power grid. In contrast to that, analyzing the data from the viewpoint of Langevin equations by estimating the drift and diffusion coefficients shows to be more reliable to anticipate the outage.
[1] M. Scheffer et. al., Nature, 461, 2009
[2] E. Cotilla-Sanchez et. al., IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 3, 2012