Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 16: Networks (joint session SOE / DY / BP)
SOE 16.5: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 23. März 2017, 10:45–11:00, GÖR 226
Surveillance for outbreak detection in livestock-trade networks — •Philipp Hövel1, Frederik Schirdewahn1, Andreas Koher1, Vitaly Belik2, Hartmut H. K. Lentz3, and Vittoria Colizza4 — 1TU Berlin — 2FU Berlin — 3Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut — 4INSERM Paris
We analyze a temporal network of livestock trade and present results of numerical simulations of epidemiological dynamics. The considered network is the backbone of the pig trade in Germany [1], which forms a major route of disease spreading between agricultural premises. The network is comprised of farms connected by a link, if animals are traded between them. We propose a concept for epidemic surveillance generally performed on a subset of the system due to limited resources. The goal is to identify agricultural holdings that are more likely to be infected during the early phase of an epidemic outbreak. These farms, which we call sentinels [2], are excellent candidates to monitor the whole network. To identify potential sentinel nodes, we determine most probable transmission routes by calculating functional clusters. These clusters are formed by nodes that have similar invasion paths. Then, we select sentinels by choosing nodes out of every cluster. We show that any epidemic outbreak can be reliably detected at an early stage by monitoring a small number of those sentinels.
[1] H. H. K. Lentz, A. Koher, P. Hövel, J. Gethmann, C. Sauter-Louis, T. Selhorst, and F. Conraths, PLoS ONE, 11, e0155196 (2016). [2] P. Bajardi, A. Barrat, L. Savini, V. Colizza, J. Roy. Soc. Interface 9, 2814 (2012).