Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 16: Networks (joint session SOE / DY / BP)

SOE 16.6: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 23. März 2017, 11:00–11:15, GÖR 226

Outbreaks of interacting dynamics — •Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad — Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin

Susceptible-Infective-Susceptible (SIS) and Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) are two successful idealized and simplified models for understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases. Nevertheless deadly records of some cases like tuberculosis during the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu and unexpected HIV cases in presence of hepatitis B and C, TB and Malaria, and vice versa, showed us that interaction between two spreading dynamics can dramatically change the epidemic dynamics. Here we investigate some microscopic mechanisms which might lead to the unexpected macroscopic outbreaks; In this work, we study spreading of two diseases: either cooperative or competitive interacting as a SIS or/and a SIR dynamics and address similarities and differences in comparison to other minimal cooperative models, i.e. SIR-SIR [1] and SIS-SIS [2]. We build up an idealized and simplified model and treat it in mean field approximations as well as stochastic agent based models. We find out in presence of cooperation an emerging region in the parameter space where the stable endemic and stable free-disease states co-exist. Interestingly this region appears differently in comparison to the SIR-SIR and SIS-SIS models. Also We track the dynamics on random generated networks; And argue how topological features can facilitate or neutralize the cooperation/competition effects.

[1] EPL 104 (2013) 50001; Nature Physics 11, 936-940 (2015); Rev. E 93, 042316. [2] arXiv:1603.09082v1.