Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 8: Economic Models I
SOE 8.3: Vortrag
Dienstag, 21. März 2017, 10:45–11:00, GÖR 226
Estimating a Hierarchy of Safetly Levels within Planetary Boundaries in a 3-dimensional Co-evolutionary Earh System Model — •Tim Kittel1,2, Rebekka Koch2, Jobst Heitzig1, Guillaume Deffuant3, Jean-Denis Mathias3, and Jürgen Kurths1,2,4 — 1PIK Potsdam, Germany — 2HU Berlin, Germany — 3IRSTEA, Aubière, France — 4University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom
In recent years, the Planetary Boundaries by Rockström et al. (2009), their superseding refinements by Steffen et al. (2015) and Social Foundations by Raworth (2012) have been under intensive investigation, particularly their interaction with each other. The framework on Topology of Sustainable Management (TSM) developed by Heitzig et al. (2016) demonstrated how a hierarchy of safety levels arises when taking the dynamics of the system and possible management options into account.
In this talk, we will present a 3-dimensional low-complexity co model of climate change, welfare growth and energy transformation which cannot be analyzed manually anymore needing the Saint-Pierre algorithm from viability input for the estimation of the safety levels.
The estimated current state face the so-called pressing lake dilemma, i.e. a decision between 2 qualitatively different pathways has to be made. One choice would be to avoid the transgression of the boundary but leading to a fossil-based economy where the growth has to be restricted all the time. The other choice would be to risk a temporary transgression of the boundaries but finally leading to a green economy.