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Regensburg 2002 – scientific programme

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 16: Makro-ökonomische Modelle und Wirtschaftswachstum I

AKSOE 16.1: Talk

Wednesday, March 13, 2002, 14:00–14:30, H8

Production Factors and Economic Growth — •R. Kümmel1, D. Lindenberger2, W. Eichhorn3, R. U. Ayres4, and B. Warr41Inst. f. Theoret. Physik, Univ. Würzburg — 2Energiewirtsch. Inst. Univ. Köln — 3Inst. f. Wirtschaftsth. u. OR, Univ. Karlsruhe — 4CMER, INSEAD, Fontainebleau

Recently, natural scientists and economists have reexamined the role of energy in economic growth. Econometric analysis of growth in the USA, Japan, and Germany between 1960 and 1996 shows that energy drives about 50% of economic growth, whereas capital and labor are responsible for the other half (1). Considering the entire period 1900 to 1998, a recent study indicates that energy (exergy) converted to physical work accounts for 60% of US economic growth prior to the 1970’s and almost 70% since then (2). Mainstream economics, on the other hand, gives energy only a weight of 5% according to energy’s share in the total cost of the production factors capital, labor and energy. Consequences of these findings are discussed.
(1) Ch. Hall, D. Lindenberger, R. Kümmel, T. Kroeger, and W. Eichhorn, “The need to reintegrate the natural sciences with economics” BioScience 51, 663-673 (2001).
(2) R. U. Ayres and B. Warr, “Accounting for growth: the role of physical work”, submitted (2001). R. U. Ayres, L. W. Ayres and B. Warr, “Exergy, Power and Work in the US economy, 1900 - 1998” submitted (2001).

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