Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 3: Strategic Stability and Regional Consequences

AGA 3.1: Hauptvortrag

Donnerstag, 17. März 2011, 10:00–11:00, MENSA Dül

Strategic stability, numbers and the breakout problem — •James Acton — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington D.C.

Once New START is ratified the US and Russia have pledged to work on a more ambitious successor, leading to much deeper cuts in their nuclear arsenals. Critics of this goal ask whether deterrence at low numbers would be 'stable'. Specifically, they worry that reductions might undermine Russia's confidence in the survivability of its forces yet further and, in a crisis, generate pressures to use its arsenal or else risk losing it to a pre-emptive strike by the US. Yet, in reality, a much more likely--and much less discussed--problem is rearmament instability, namely, the possibility that the US or Russia might rebuild their arsenals. Based on the experience of the Cold War, this paper considers what might trigger rearmament and possible arms control approaches to managing it.