Dresden 2014 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 6: Poster Session

SOE 6.17: Poster

Montag, 31. März 2014, 18:00–20:00, P2

Measuring the predictability in social media — •José M. Miotto and Eduardo G. Altmann — Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany

We derive a formula to quantify the predictablity of binary events in different systems. We apply it to the problem of predicting whether the attention devoted to social-media items will pass a given threshold (e.g., whether a scientific paper will become more than 1,000 views within 2 months). Results obtained using different prediction factors in four different databases show that increasing the threshold increases the predictability, a surprising results which is interepreted using simple statistical and stochastic models.