Regensburg 2016 – scientific programme

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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik

BP 1: Tutorial: Evolutionary Dynamics and Applications to Biology, Social and Economic Systems (SOE/DY/BP/jDPG)

BP 1.1: Tutorial

Sunday, March 6, 2016, 16:00–16:50, H16

Predicting evolution: statistical mechanics and biophysics far from equilibrium — •Michael Lässig — Institut für theoretische Physik, Zülpicher Strasse 77, D-50937 Köln

The human flu virus undergoes rapid evolution, which is driven by interactions with its host immune system. We describe the evolutionary dynamics by a fitness model based on two biophysical phenotypes of the virus: protein folding stability and susceptibility to human immune response. This model successfully predicts the evolution of influenza one year into the future, which has important consequences for public health: evolutionary predictions can inform the selection of influenza vaccine strains. Based on this example, we discuss the role of statistical mechanics and biophysics in making evolutionary biology a predictive science.