Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 30: Poster - Complex nonlinear systems
DY 30.1: Poster
Dienstag, 8. März 2016, 18:15–21:00, Poster C
A stochastic individual-based model of the progression of atrial fibrillation — Eugene Chang1, •Yen Ting Lin2, Tobias Galla2, Richard Clayton1, and Julie Eatock3 — 1The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK — 2The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK — 3Brunel University London, Uxbridge, Middlesex, UK
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most common rhythm disorders in the heart, and it progresses through several stages. While mechanistic models of AF exist at cellular level, there is no systematic framework with which to connect these to population-level models of AF progression. In this work we propose a stochastic individual-based model of the progression of AF. The outputs of the model are times when the patient is in normal rhythm and AF. We carry out a population-level analysis of the statistics of disease progression. While the model is stylised at present and not directly predictive, future improvements are proposed to tighten the gap between existing mechanistic models of AF, and epidemiological data, with a view towards model-based personalised medicine.