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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 7: Poster

SOE 7.7: Poster

Monday, March 12, 2018, 17:00–20:00, Poster E

Statistical patterns of Lithuanian parliamentary elections — •Aleksejus Kononovicius — Vilnius University, Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy, Vilnius, Lithuania

In this contribution we analyze statistical patterns of Lithuanian parliamentary elections. Namely, we consider parties' vote share at polling stations level. Using Bayesian approach we show that the empirical distributions are rather well fitted by the Weibull and Beta distributions, while normal distribution, often used in the literature, works less well. We provide some arguments on why this happens and why normal distribution seems to provide appropriate fit for data considered in the other works. We propose a simple agent-based model, which serves as an argument on why the Beta distribution seems to be the best candidate to fit empirical vote share distributions. The contribution will cover material from [1,2].

[1] A. Kononovicius, Complexity 2017, 7354642 (2017), doi: 10.1155/2017/7354642.

[2] A. Kononovicius, arXiv:1709.07655 [physics.soc-ph].