Dresden 2020 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 2: Climate, Climate modelling & Energy

UP 2.2: Vortrag

Dienstag, 17. März 2020, 10:20–10:40, HSZ 105

Variability of surface climate in model simulations of past and future climate — •Kira Rehfeld¹, Raphaël Hébert², Juan Lora³, Marcus Lofverström⁴, and Chris Brierley⁵ — ¹Institut für Umweltphysik, Heidelberg University, Germany — ²Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany — ³Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, US — ⁴Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, US — ⁵Department of Geography, University College London, UK

Mean surface temperature of the Earth is projected to rise under all considered emission scenarios, yet little is known about future changes in climate variability. We assess changes in the variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and modes of variability over the entire model ensembles of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, including the time slices of the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid Holocene, idealized warming experiments and future projections. We examine changes at the local scale and relate them to global mean temperature and precipitation changes. We investigate systematic changes in modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, with global mean temperature change. Mean precipitation across the ensemble is correlated with mean temperature, but the correlation with precipitation variability is weak. We find decreases (increases) of precipitation variability for warm (cold) simulations in western continent regions. Compositing extreme precipitation events we show that, in these regions, they are dominated by the same climatic modes in palaeoclimate and future simulations.