BPCPPDYSOE21 – wissenschaftliches Programm
Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Aktualisierungen | Downloads | Hilfe
SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 1: COVID-19 pandemics through the lens of physics (org.: Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad and Philipp Hövel)
SOE 1.2: Vortrag
Montag, 22. März 2021, 09:40–10:00, SOEa
An all-Ireland SIRX Network Model for the Spreading of SARS-CoV-2 — •Rory Humphries1, Mary Spillane1, Kiernan Mulchrone1, Sebastian Wieczorek1, Michael O’Riordain1, 2, and Philipp Hövel1 — 1School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Western Road, Cork T12 XF64, Ireland — 2Department of Surgery, Mercy University Hospital, Grenville Place, Cork, T12 WE28, Ireland
The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland have been severely impacted by the recent history of the spreading of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Our work contributes to the goal of an island with zero community transmissions and careful monitoring of routes of importation in the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions.
In the model, nodes correspond to locations or communities that are connected by links indicating travel and commuting between different locations. The network comprises 4330 nodes, which corresponds to local administrative units below the NUTS 3 regions. The local dynamics within each node follows a phenomenological SIRXD compartmental model including classes of Susceptibles, Infected, Recovered, Quarantined (X) and Deaths. We consider various scenarios including the 5-phase roadmap for Ireland, where the parameters are chosen to match the current number of reported deaths. In addition, we investigate the effect of dynamic interventions that aim to keep the number of infected below a given threshold.