BPCPPDYSOE21 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 1: COVID-19 pandemics through the lens of physics (org.: Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad and Philipp Hövel)
SOE 1.6: Vortrag
Montag, 22. März 2021, 11:40–12:00, SOEa
How to estimate the macroscopic epidemic dynamics with a random testing strategy — Yasaman Asgari1, Sepideh Abdollahi2, Aryana Haghjoo2, Farnoush Farahpour3, and •Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad1,4 — 1Department of Mathematics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran — 2Department of Physics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran — 3Bioinformatics and Computational Biophysics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany — 4Institute for Theoretical Physics, Technical University of Dresden, Dresden, Germany
The world has suffered from epidemics and pandemics especially the most recent one: COVID-19 in many ways. Having a more precise estimation of how an epidemic evolves, can help us to make better interventions policies. Molecular and Antibody tests, not only can help the physicians for a more accurate individual diagnosis (microscopic level) but also can help to have a macroscopic picture of the spreading dynamics. However, due to some limitations, different testing strategies have to be made. In this work, we want to show how to estimate the real epidemic dynamics with random sampling at a macroscopic level. So we developed a mathematical model based on SIR dynamics and introduced a quantitative method on how to extract information from the empirical data, i.e. daily test results. Moreover, we show the impact of daily test capacity on the estimation. Finally, we studied two empirical data, namely the daily positive PCR cases at Paris and Massachusetts, and compared our estimations with their COVID-19 wastewater analysis. Our estimations present reliable error bars.