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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 3: Fissile Materials and Detection

AGA 3.2: Invited Talk

Thursday, March 17, 2022, 14:45–15:30, AGA-H19

Parametric Estimate of Nuclear Material Usage in North Korea's Last Nuclear Test — •Robert Kelley and Vitaly Fedchenko — SIPRI Stockholm

North Korea (DPRK) has carried out six underground nuclear explosions. The first five had yields well below 20 kilotons and could be safely estimated to be single-stage fission devices. The last test had a yield estimated at closer to 250 kt. This was almost certainly a thermonuclear test using two stages and considerably more fissionable material than a single stage device. Yield estimates for single stage devices have few uncertainties and are acknowledged roughly by nuclear powers. But the amount of fissionable material in a thermonuclear stage is much harder to estimate. The authors used known characteristics of the DPRK test and some historical US devices to make such an estimate. There are a number of uncertainties that they explored. The conclusions can be used for stockpile estimates for DPRK weapons.