# SKM 2023 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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# DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

## DY 19: Physics of Contagion Processes II (joint session SOE/DY)

### DY 19.2: Vortrag

### Dienstag, 28. März 2023, 10:15–10:30, ZEU 260

Large-deviations of the SIR model under the influence of Lockdowns — Leo Patrick Mulholland^{1}, •Yannick Feld^{2}, and Alexander K. Hartmann^{2} — ^{1}Queen’s University Belfast, United Kingdom — ^{2}Institute of Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany

Due to the high real-wold impact of diseases, the modelling of its dynamics has long since become an important aspect of various disciplines. Statistical physics is one of them as it gives us the tools investigate the fundamental processes through which a disease spreads throughout a population.

The transmission of a disease is affected by a lot of different factors. For example in response to the SARS-CoV 2 pandemic many governmental bodies imposed interventions to impede the spread of disease. One of the earliest non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that most countries used were lockdowns.

Motivated by that, we numerically [1]
study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
with lockdowns
on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach, which was
previously used to study the case of an unimpeded spread [2].
This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the
cumulative fraction of
infected nodes
down to very small probabilities like 10^{−55}. The density exhibits
remarkable discontinuties of the first derivative.

[1] A.K. Hartmann, Big Practical Guide to Computer Simulations (World Scientific, 2015)

[2] Y. Feld, A. K. Hartmann, Phys. Rev. E 105 17 (2022)