Dresden 2026 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 10: Networks, From Topology to Dynamics II (joint session SOE/DY)

SOE 10.3: Talk

Wednesday, March 11, 2026, 15:30–15:45, GÖR/0226

Beyond Averages: How Disease Severity and Social Structure Interact to Shape Pandemic Dynamics — •Fabio Sartori, Sophia Horn, Sven Banisch, and Michael Maes — Chair of Sociology and Computational Social Science, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe

Epidemiological models typically rely on population averages, overlooking behavioral polarization and social structure. We developed a compartmental framework examining how polarization and homophily shape outcomes across mask-wearing, testing, and vaccination interventions. Results reveal intervention-specific effects: polarization benefits masks but harms testing and vaccination. Homophily worsens outcomes for low-infectivity diseases by removing protective barriers, but improves outcomes for highly infectious diseases through protective bubbles. Calibrating with German survey data (n=1,612), homogeneous models showed large errors. Intervention effectiveness depends critically on social structure and pathogen characteristics, not just average compliance.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Polarization; Contact Matrix; Heterogeneities; SIR+