Dresden 2026 – scientific programme
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 16: Tipping Points in Social and Climate Systems (accompanying session for SYTP)
SOE 16.1: Invited Talk
Thursday, March 12, 2026, 11:30–12:00, GÖR/0226
Tipping in Strongly Perturbed Open Networks — •Marc Timme1,2, Georg Börner1, Marisa Fischer1, Julian Fleck1, Seungjae Lee1, Philip Marszal1, Gwendolyn Quasebarth1, Malte Schröder1, and Moritz Thümler1 — 1Network Dynamics, TU Dresden, http://networkdynamics.info — 2Lakeside Labs, Klagenfurt, Austria
Strong fluctuations impacting open systems may induce tipping and system-wide cascading failure, yet it remains unclear under which conditions, how, and at which point fluctuation-driven systems tip. Here we report theoretical and methodological progress about tipping and its precursors in a range of externally driven nonlinear networked systems, substantially generalizing and going beyond work on one- and two-dimensional systems [1,2]. We combine self-consistency conditions, insights from periodically driven systems in electrodynamics and tools from harmonic balance and asymptotic analysis to uncover generic routes to tipping, to predict intrinsically nonlinear response dynamics before tipping and estimate the tipping point semi-analytically. We highlight several application directions and a broad range of unsolved questions.
I acknowledge generous support by the German Science Foundation (DFG) through a Koselleck project (2025-2029, proj. # 544800752).
[1] M. Thümler et al., Nonlinear and divergent responses of fluctuation-driven systems, IFAC-PapersOnLine 55:254 (2022).
[2] G. Börner et al., Perturbation-response dynamics of coupled nonlinear systems, Chaos 34:103149 (2024).
Keywords: open networks; tipping; nonlinear dynamics; nonequilibrium dynamics; fluctuations