Dresden 2026 – scientific programme
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 9: Economic Models
SOE 9.1: Talk
Wednesday, March 11, 2026, 11:30–11:45, GÖR/0226
Macroscopic Stochastic Model for Economic Cycle Dynamics — •Eckehard Schöll1,2, Sören Nagel2,3, and Jobst Heitzig2 — 1TU Berlin — 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research — 3Zuse Institute Berlin
We present a stochastic dynamic model which can explain economic cycles [1]. We show that the macroscopic description yields a complex dynamical landscape consisting of multiple stable fixed points, each corresponding to a split of the population into a large low and a small high income group. The stochastic fluctuations induce switching between the resulting metastable states, and excitation oscillations just below a deterministic bifurcation. The shocks are caused by the decisions of a few agents who have a disproportionate influence over the macroscopic state of the economy due to the unequal distribution of wealth among the population. The fluctuations have a long-term effect on the growth of economic output and lead to business cycle oscillations exhibiting coherence resonance, where the correlation time is controlled by the population size which is inversely proportional to the squared noise intensity.
[1] S. Nagel, J. Heitzig, and E. Schöll: Macroscopic stochastic model for economic cycle dynamics. Phys. Rev. Lett. 134, 047402 (2025).
Keywords: macroscopic stochastic model; economic cycle dynamics; economic shocks; excitation oscillations; coherence resonance