Dresden 2026 – scientific programme

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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 5: Modelling and Prediction Across Scales

UP 5.2: Talk

Tuesday, March 10, 2026, 14:30–14:45, MER/0002

Projected variability of solar resources in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East — •Nikolaos Papadimitriou^{1, 2}, Kostas Douvis², Stergios Misios², Antonis Gkikas², Andreas Kazantzidis¹, Christos Zerefos^{3, 4, 5}, and Ilias Fountoulakis² — ¹Department of Physics, University of Patras, Patras, Greece — ²Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece — ³Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece — ⁴Navarino Environmental Observatory (N.E.O.), Messinia, Greece — ⁵Mariolopoulos-Kanaginis Foundation for the Environmental Sciences, Athens, Greece

Climate change is expected to alter key atmospheric parameters influencing downwelling solar irradiance, including cloudiness and aerosol concentration. The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region, identified as a climate hotspot and known for its high levels of solar exposure, constitutes a particularly relevant case study for assessing future variability of solar energy potential. We use data from three global climate models that participated in the 6th phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-6): CNRM-CM6-1-HR, INM-CM5-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. Projections were evaluated under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 245, 370, 585). In this study, we analyzed trends in surface downwelling solar irradiance and associated climatic drivers and estimate the photovoltaic (PV) power potential by performing simulations with the climate data interface of the GSEE model.

Keywords: climate change; solar energy; PV modelling; aerosol