Erlangen 2026 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 6: Nuclear Weapon Effects

AGA 6.1: Invited Talk

Thursday, March 19, 2026, 15:15–16:15, KH 00.016

Modeling Nuclear Weapon Effects from Trinity to Nuclear War — •Sébastien Philippe — University of Wisconsin*Madison

The Trinity nuclear test of July 16, 1945 marked the first uncontrolled, large-scale release of radioactive material into the atmosphere. In the decades that followed, more than 500 atmospheric nuclear tests produced fallout at local, regional, and global scales, exposing populations worldwide. Yet the spatial and temporal distribution of this fallout remains only partially characterized. This presentation shows how modern tools - combining high-resolution atmospheric transport models, reanalyzed historical meteorological data, and physics-based nuclear explosion source terms*enable a new generation of fallout reconstructions. These methods yield hour-by-hour deposition estimates at kilometer-scale resolution, improving assessments of radiological exposure from historical testing, including in regions with sparse or absent monitoring data. The same framework scales directly to contemporary nuclear conflict scenarios. When integrated with population, infrastructure, agricultural, ecological, and other prompt nuclear effects, it enables comprehensive assessments of the physical, environmental, and societal consequences of nuclear war.

Keywords: Nuclear Weapon effects; Simulation