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AKA: Arbeitskreis Physik und Abrüstung

AKA II: HV II

AKA II.1: Hauptvortrag

Donnerstag, 18. März 1999, 10:30–11:30, CH3

Pakistan after the May Tests - Measures to Curb the Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia — •Pervez Hoodbhoy — Department of Physics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan

Over several decades, Pakistan has built up a nuclear infrastructure with uranium mines, isotope separation, reactors, and reprocessing. On the surface dedicated to peaceful nuclear energy, the bomb option has loomed in the background all the time. The motivation rose due to the tensions and wars with India, and in particular after the Indian test of 1974. The decision to openly demonstrate nuclear-weapon status with the tests of May 1998 was an immediate reaction to the Indian precedent. Now, however, the post-testing euphoria in Pakistan is rapidly vanishing and public worries about the crushing effect of sanctions are occupying the centre stage. It is now becoming evident to a rapidly growing minority of people, including those who had strongly supported the tests, that Pakistan today is neither more secure nor has nuclear testing transformed it into a major world power. On the contrary, compared to the period before May 28, there is increased chaos, political instability, marked economic decline, and a higher level of tension with India. Islamic fundamentalists are now militantly challenging the Nawaz Sharif government, which is now resorting to increased Islamization in response. Pakistan’s present difficulties may also offer new opportunities for progress towards limitations on its nuclear programme. The international community is aware that its economic clout can be used to make Pakistan accede not only to the CTBT but also to the FMCT and non-weaponization. This pressure, however, should be used wisely and in coincidence with pressure on India to make similar moves. Excess pressure may be unproductive since there is the likelihood of a right-wing backlash.