Hamburg 2001 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKA: Physik und Abrüstung

AKA 1: National Missile Defense

AKA 1.1: Hauptvortrag

Donnerstag, 29. März 2001, 10:00–11:00, R 221

National Missile Defense Options for the Next President and their Implications for International Security — •George N. Lewis — MIT Boston

The United States is very likely to begin deployment of a National Missile Defense (NMD) system within the next year or two. This talk will begin by reviewing the current state of the U.S. NMD program. The NMD system developed by the Clinton Administration appears to be highly vulnerable to simple offensive countermeasures and has no ability to counter missiles armed with chemical or biological submunitions. These problems have led to increased interest in larger and/or alternative NMD systems. The range of NMD options available to the new U.S. President will be reviewed, including deploying the currently planned NMD system, deploying a larger version of this system, adding sea-based interceptors, adding boost-phase interceptors, and/or incorporating theater missile defense systems into the NMD system. The potential arms control and international security implications of an NMD deployment over Russian and Chinese objections will be discussed. Finally, a key and often neglected aspect of the U.S. NMD will be considered: How will we know if it will work? It will be shown that the currently planned testing program will provide essentially no information on how well the NMD system would work until well after it is likely to be deployed and operational.