Dresden 2003 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
AKSOE 1: Finanzm
ärkte und Risikomanagement I
AKSOE 1.5: Vortrag
Montag, 24. März 2003, 11:30–12:00, BAR/205
Volatility clustering and scaling for financial time series due to attractor bubbling — •Janusz Holyst1,2, Andrzej Krawiecki1,2, and Dirk Helbing2 — 1Faculty of Physics and Center of Excellence for Complex Systems Research, Warsaw University Of Technology, Koszykowa 75, Pl-00-662 Warsaw, Poland — 2Institute for Economics and Traffic, Dresden University of Technology, D-01062 Dresden, Germany
A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time thermal bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change randomly in time. In the thermodynamic limit the obtained time series of price returns show chaotic bursts resulting from the emergence of attractor bubbling or on-off intermittency, resembling the empirical financial time series with volatility clustering. For a proper choice of the model parameters the probability distributions of returns exhibit power-law tails with scaling exponents close to the empirical ones. The necessary conditions for the applicability of the model are (i) random fluctuations in time of the average interaction strength between agents (corresponding to their average reaction to price changes), (ii) an uncertainty of decision making analogous to thermal heat bath dynamics, and (iii), in the thermodynamic limit, small additive noise simulating the effect of the external environment.
References. A. Krawiecki, J.A. Holyst and D. Helbing, No-dqVolatility Clustering and Scaling for Financial Time Series due to Attractor BubblingNo-dq, Phys. Rev. Lett.89 (15), 158701(4) (2002)