Dresden 2006 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 10: Poster Session (posters are expected to be displayed the full day 8:30-18:00)

AKSOE 10.10: Poster

Mittwoch, 29. März 2006, 16:00–18:00, P2

The pace of networking technical and social innovation may be genetically stabilized — •H G Danielmeyer — Inst f. Neuro- und Bioinformatik, Lübeck, Ratzeburger Allee 160

The evolution of the leading nation’s real gross domestic products per capita from the UK of 1750 to the G7 of 2000 fits a simple S-curve with half time in 2040 and exponential decay rate of 1/60 p. a. Only a very basic process can stabilize the pace of innovation over 10 generations. The first explanation assumed that networking technical and social innovations requires generally the sum of the average lifetime of our physical capital of F=25 years and a postulated social reaction time against change of M=35 years. The second uses the result that the corresponding life expectancies yield the same S-function (preceding the evolution by 30 years). The hereditability of longevity (A. M. Herskind et al., Hum Genet (1996) 97: 319-323)shows that some experiences made in life can be passed on to the next generation. For this process the reproduction biology yields indeed the sum F+M, but now with a genetic instead of a sociotechnical meaning: The pace of the industrial evolution may be genetically stabilized and therefore predictable.