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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 13: Dynamics of Groups and Organizations IV

AKSOE 13.3: Talk

Thursday, March 30, 2006, 15:00–15:30, BAR 205

On the nature of business cycles — •H G Danielmeyer — Inst. für Neuro- und Bioinformatik, Lübeck, Ratzeburger Allee 160

The four business cycles of the USA between 1961 and 1992 are analyzed with non-linear market-coupled first order differential rate equations for one consumer and one supplier with different but constant planning horizons (PHs). The base period of this system’s cycles turns out to be 2Pi times the square root of the product of their PHs. Agreement with the periods and asymmetry of the cycles is obtained with the calendar year for both PHs but different anticipation and damping attitudes in positive (the so-called Phillips curve) and negative cycle phases, resp. Each correction is generally causing the next. Business cycle policies are not improving long term structural growth.