# Dresden 2006 – wissenschaftliches Programm

## Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Downloads | Hilfe

# AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

## AKSOE 9: Traffic Dynamics, Urban and Regional Systems

### AKSOE 9.3: Vortrag

### Mittwoch, 29. März 2006, 15:00–15:30, BAR 205

**Probabilistic Description of Traffic Breakdown** — •Reinhard Mahnke^{1} and Reinhart Kuehne^{2} — ^{1}Rostock University, Institute of Physics, D-18051 Rostock — ^{2}German Aerospace Center, Transportation Research, D-12489 Berlin

Traffic breakdowns are described by a balance equation that models the dynamics of jam formation by the following two contributions. There are discharge rate depending on the length of the congestion and an adhesion rate mainly depending on the traffic volume of the considered road section. With this balance equation it is feasible to calculate the dynamics of traffic pattern formation especially the first passage time for a transition from free flow condition to congested traffic including the influence of the parameters affecting the discharge and adhesion rates. As a simple approximation we consider constant attachment rate as well as constant detachment rate.

Starting with the probability density and furtheron with the cumulative probability for breakdowns the change in the incident duration distribution is calculated and qualitatively given. The paper concludes with recommendations for a comprehensive operation improvement and provides necessary steps for a long lasting stabilization of traffic for a given vehicular flow time series pattern.