Dresden 2009 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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AGSOE: Arbeitsgruppe Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
AGSOE 5: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Dynamics
AGSOE 5.1: Vortrag
Montag, 23. März 2009, 16:00–16:30, BAR 205
Identification of the different ingredients governing the outcome of a soccer match — •Andreas Heuer, Christian Müller, and Oliver Rubner — Institut für Physikalische Chemie, WWU Münster
In previous work we have shown that during a whole season of the Bundesliga the quality of a team can be characterized by a single fitness value F. It can be estimated from the league table [1]. Here we analyse the three relevant ingredients, determining the outcome of a single match of teams A and B with fitness FA and FB, respectively.
1.) Which law determines the expectation for the average goal difference Δ GAB of this match? From symmetry and self-consistency arguments the most general function Δ GAB(FA,FB) can be identified. Comparison with the actual data allows one to adjust the parameters and to obtain a unique function. 2.) How important are fluctuations of the team fitness from match to match around its average value? Surprisingly, the effect of fitness fluctuations is very small. 3.) Given the average outcome of a match, what is the probability for a specific result? In contrast to a previous interpretation [2] the number of goals per team in a match can be extremely well described by a simple Poisson process (up to 8 goals).
In summary, soccer turns out to be a surprisingly simple match with respect to its statistical properties.
[1] A. Heuer, O. Rubner, Eur. J. Phys. B (in press).
[2] E. Bittner et al, Europhys. Lett. 78, 58002 (2007).