Dresden 2009 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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AGSOE: Arbeitsgruppe Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
AGSOE 9: Economic Models and Evolutionary Game Theory I
AGSOE 9.4: Vortrag
Dienstag, 24. März 2009, 15:30–16:00, BAR 205
Simulation of the spread of highly allergenic ragweed in past and future — •Gero Vogl1, Michael Leitner1, Manfred Smolik1, Lorenz-Mathias Stadler1, Stefan Dullinger2, Franz Essl3, Ingrid Kleinbauer4, and Johannes Peterseil3 — 1Fakultät für Physik der Universität Wien — 2Fakultät für Lebenswissenschaften der Universität Wien — 3Umweltbundesamt, Wien — 4VINCA, Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Modelling the spread of newcomers has traditionally been based on reaction-diffusion equations (Skellam 1951). However, these equations do not allow for explicit considering details of the environment (the habitat). Even by incorporating environmental heterogeneity by adjusting the model parameters to the habitat suitability (e.g. Kinezaki et al. 2002, 2006) the specific spatial habitat configurations cannot be incorporated in detail. Spatially explicit modelling approaches are necessary for describing and predicting the spread of invasive species in real landscapes and as a function of changing climate.
In order to reconstruct by help of Monte Carlo simulations the recent spread of the highly allergenic invasive ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Austria we integrate habitat-based information on potential distributions and spatio-temporal range dynamics into a common framework. The result: invasion is not as fast as changing climate would permit, because spread is limited by the constraints of either short range diffusion or long range transport.