Hamburg 2009 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 2: Missile Defense and Threat Analysis

AGA 2.2: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 4. März 2009, 17:30–18:00, VMP 9 HS

Consistency - the decisive factor for realistic threat assessment — •Robert Schmucker and Markus Schiller — Schmucker Technologie, 80469 München, Klenzestrasse 14

Disarmament and verification are closely linked to threat situation analysis. The assumed threat potential of a country should be based on the two factors "intention" and "capability", where capability can be derived by an engineering approach with technical and physical analysis methods.

Usual threat analysis concentrates on single topics without regarding other assessments and facts. If all the independent assessments are connected, a big picture is created that is often contradictory in many ways, which means that some assessments must be wrong.

A sense of consistency must be established in the community of analysts to become aware of this problem and to critically question some of the established truths. The lecture gives comprehensible examples of inconsistencies concerning various countries of interest (Syria, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan,...) that might contribute to establish this requested sense of consistency.