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AGPhil: Arbeitsgruppe Philosophie der Physik

AGPhil 1: Unbestimmtheit, Zufall, Wahrscheinlichkeit

AGPhil 1.2: Talk

Monday, March 9, 2009, 17:45–18:15, M014

Metaphysics and the interpretation of probability — •Wolfgang Pietsch — Carl von Linde-Akadmie, TU München

20th century physics stands out due to the crucial role of probability - a concept which was virtually non-existent in the mechanistic physics of earlier days. Many philosophical and foundational issues, especially in quantum mechanics and in statistical mechanics, are closely linked to the question how exactly probability should be interpreted in these theories. A common viewpoint is, that it should be interpreted differently: in quantum mechanics objectively and in statistical mechanics epistemically. Such pluralism concerning probability is quite fashionable nowadays - even outside physics. Intriguingly, in many contemporary accounts this pluralism seems to be justified mostly by an act of faith. At best it is supported by a vague reference to different fields of application for probability. In my talk, I will try to address the issue more systematically. It will be shown, that most of the differences between the various probability interpretations derive from the stance that is taken on two metaphysical questions: (i) Is there a unique best description of the phenomena? (ii) Given that such a description exist, does everything happen for a reason? Classifying probability interpretations according to these questions will allow to distinguish two very different kinds of pluralism, one to be embraced by realists believing in indeterminism and the other to be embraced by metaphysical relativists or pragmatists.