Regensburg 2010 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 14: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (joint session of BP, DY, SOE)
DY 14.4: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 24. März 2010, 11:00–11:15, H44
A novel threshold mechanism for epidemics on complex networks — •Vitaly Belik1 and Theo Geisel1,2 — 1Max-Planck-Institut für Dynamik und Selbstorganisation — 2Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
Recently much effort was devoted to modeling of spatial spread of infectious diseases, triggered by latest pandemics, such as SARS and H1N1 influenza. Theoretical understanding of different modeling frameworks and taken assumptions are substantial factors determining reliability of predictions based on the models. We investigate on an epidemiological model explicitly taking into account such an important factor of human mobility as tendency to move frequently among several most preferred locations rarely undertaking long trips. We considered complex network topologies as an underlying mobility network and discovered new threshold behavior of the global epidemic outbreak in terms of time spent on distant location. Our results are supported by extensive stochastic numerical simulations. We believe our findings contribute to understanding of epidemiological dynamics and development of effective control and preventive measures.