Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 38: Data Analysis and Stochastic Modeling I (jointly with UP)

DY 38.1: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 17. März 2011, 16:30–16:45, ZEU 255

Analyzing the phase statistics of phenological records: fluctuations and correlations with temperature — •Diego Rybski, Anne Holsten, and Jürgen P. Kropp — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called phenological phases can be a direct consequence of climate change. We analyze records of botanical phenology and study their fluctuations which we find to depend on the seasons. In contrast to previous studies, where typically trends in the phenology of individual species are estimated, we consider the ensemble of all available phases and propose a phenological index that characterizes the influence of climate on the multitude of botanical species.