Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 14: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics II (with BP, DY)
SOE 14.4: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 16. März 2011, 11:30–11:45, GÖR 226
What is the front velocity in wave propagation without fronts? - Epidemics on complex networks provide an answer — •Rafael Brune1,2, Christian Thiemann1,2, and Dirk Brockmann1 — 1Northwestern University, Evanston, USA — 2Max-Planck-Institut für Dynamik und Selbstorganisation, Göttingen, Deutschland
The spatiotemporal patterns of infectious diseases that spread nowadays typically lack a well defined wave front as human mobility is multi-scale. The structure of emergent patterns is difficult to assess quantitatively, in particular spreading speeds are difficult to define and compare in different scenarios. We present a novel way to look at contagion phenomena on complex networks using the underlying topological structure of the network. Shortest-path distances and arrival times are used to redefine the velocity of spreading patterns. We extend the idea of a wavefront that can be directly observed in simple networks like a regular lattice to the class of complex networks which in traditional views exhibit complicated patterns. This method substantially simplifies the way dynamics are analyzed and explains why patterns in complex modeling approaches share many similarities. Disease dynamics on various complex networks ranging from artificial to real human mobility networks show the benefit of representing the spatio-temporal patterns based on topological features of the network.