Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 15: Economic Models and Evolutionary Game Theory I (with BP, DY)

SOE 15.3: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 16. März 2011, 14:30–14:45, GÖR 226

Soccer between the 1st and the 90th minute: is it a Markov process? — •Andreas Heuer and Oliver Rubner — Institute of Physical Chemistry, University of Muenster

In previous work we have developed a theoretical understanding of the fitness of a team and its influences on the outcome of a specific match [1,2]. Here we analyse whether or not non-Markovian effects are present within a single match. Does the future course of a soccer match depend on the present score, on the time when the last goal was scored, on the team which scored the last goal? If all these and similar questions find a negative answer one can indeed speak of a Markovian process. In this case soccer would be very similar to tossing a coin, at least from a statistical point of view.

Studying all matches during the last 20 seasons of the German Bundesliga we find that most but not all questions find a negative answer. A simple psychological explanation is suggested which may account for the observed deviation from Markovian behavior.

[1] A. Heuer, O. Rubner, Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445 (2009).

[2] A. Heuer, C. Müller, O. Rubner, Europhys. Lett. 89, 38007 (2010).