Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 17: Socio-Economic Systems

SOE 17.1: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 16. März 2011, 17:15–17:30, GÖR 226

Tipping Points and Cascading Pathways in Climate-Society Interaction — •Jürgen Scheffran and Jasmin Kominek — ZMAW, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg

Climate change affects the life of human beings and may have larger societal effects, by undermining the infrastructures of society or by inducing destabilizing human responses and social interaction patterns. An increase in global temperature above a threshold may lead to cascading pathways and tipping points, possibly triggering a cycle of environmental degradation, economic decline, social unrest and political instability. Whether individual agents and social networks are able to cope with the climate impacts will depend on their responses and abilities to adapt to or solve associated problems. To analyse these processes systematically, an integrated assessment framework of climate-society interactions uses concepts and methods of complex systems analysis. The complex causal chains can be constructed through a network of interconnections based on the sensitivities between key variables and actions. Analysis of the dynamic interaction model and its stability provides indications for developing approaches for early warning systems and risk reduction.