Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 15: Poster Session
SOE 15.6: Poster
Mittwoch, 28. März 2012, 16:50–17:50, Poster F
From probabilities of recurrence to stock index interrelations — •Bedartha Goswami1, G. Ambika2, Norbert Marwan1, and Jürgen Kurths1,3 — 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany — 2Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pashan, Pune - 411021, India — 3Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany
Financial data is extensively studied for correlations using Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient ρ as the point of departure, such that ρ is now synonymous with the idea of `connectivity'. We apply a recurrence-plot-based estimator---the Correlation of Probability of Recurrence (CPR)---to analyze `connections' between nine stock indices spread worldwide; and suggest a modification of the CPR to get more robust results. We examine trends in CPR using an approximately 19-month window and compare them to ρ. Binning CPR into three levels of connectedness: strong, moderate and weak, we extract the trends in number of connections in each bin over time. CPR mainly uncovers that the markets move in and out of periods of strong connectivity erratically, instead of moving monotonously towards increasing global connectivity. This is in contrast to ρ, which gives a picture of ever increasing correlation. We use significance tests using Twin Surrogates to interpret all the measures estimated in the study.