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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 60: Poster - complex systems and data analysis

DY 60.9: Poster

Thursday, March 19, 2015, 16:00–18:00, Poster A

The Coincidence Skill Score - a new approach to quantify event simultaneity in climate applications — •Jonatan F. Siegmund and Reik V. Donner — Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Postfach 601203, 14412 Potsdam

Besides gradual changes of the mean behaviour of climate variables, global climate change results in higher frequencies and intensities of extreme events like heat waves, droughts or intense rain events. The impacts of these events on terrestrial ecosystems are hardly known.

In this study, we develope an extention of the Coincidence Analysis, a method to detect non-random simultaneous appearences of extreme events in two time series. For this purpose, we consider a Non-Reaction-Rate, complementing the formerly studied Coincidence Rate, to define a Coincidence Skill Score, related to the Peirce Skill Score which is widely used in meteorological applications. The new method has the advantage of distinguishing between different cases of simultaneous and non-simultaneous events and therefore provides an alternative for the comparison of time series with different numbers of extreme events.

We apply this approach to investigate the influence of climatic extreme events on wildlife plant flowering phenology for Germany. Our results underline formerly found relationships and additionally highlight long-term-dependencies between extremely high temperatures and very early plant flowering with a time-lag of almost one year. These results support hypotheses, that more and stronger climate extreme events might sustainably disturb domestic ecosystems.