Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 24: Extreme Events (joint session DY / SOE)
SOE 24.7: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 19. März 2015, 16:45–17:00, BH-N 243
The Role of Perturbation Growth in Critical Transitions and Extreme Events — •Nahal Sharafi1, Sarah Hallerberg1, and Marc Timme1,2 — 1Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany — 2Göttingen University, Göttingen, Germany
Extreme events and critical transitions happen in a variety of dynamical systems. Marked by their high magnitude as well as their infrequent and irregular occurrence, they can lead to disasters.
Employing quantifiers of chaos, we work towards identifying changes in the dynamical structure of complex systems before an extreme event or a critical transition happens. Next we use these changes as precursors of the events. Apart from possible practical implementations, such as predictions, we use the relation between predictor and event in order to understand the dynamical origins of the events under study.
As candidate precursors, we consider changes in different features of covariant Lyapunov vectors such as growth rate, localization or direction.