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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 4: Missiles, Drones, Strategic Stability

AGA 4.2: Talk

Thursday, March 10, 2016, 16:00–16:30, H3

Strategic Stability and Disrupting Technologies — •Goetz Neuneck — IFSH, Universität Hamburg

In today's multilateral nuclear world the key notion 'strategic stability' is often used by nuclear weapon states, but not very well understood or defined. Many stabilizing and destabilizing factors are influencing strategic stability in the context of nuclear deterrence. A continuing disarmament process and more transparency can be stabilizing, whereas new emerging weapon technologies can contribute negatively to the strategic balance of the nuclear powers. They are subsequently dependent on national views, doctrines, early warning, command and control and delivery capabilities. Unfortunately, all nuclear weapons states are modernizing their arsenals. This includes technical capabilities (Ballistic Missile Defense, Conventional Cruise missiles and Prompt Global strike technologies) which can have a negative impact on strategic stability in the relation of survivability, arms race stability, crisis stability and catastrophic incidents. The presentation will describe the stabilizing and destabilizing factors. The talk will focus on the Russian, American and Chinese relationship, but draws also important lessons for other nuclear weapon states.