Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 52: Extreme events

DY 52.4: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 10. März 2016, 12:15–12:30, H47

Capturing rogue waves by multi-point statisticsAli Hadjihosseini1, Matthias Waechter1, Norbert Hoffmann2, and •Joachim Peinke1,31ForWind - Center for Wind Energy Research, Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany — 2Hamburg University of Technology, 21073 Hamburg, Germany — 3Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany

As an example for complex systems with extreme events we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves. Mapping the complexity of multi-point data onto the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales, we can show that the wave data can be described by a stochastic cascade process with Markov properties, which is given by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. With this stochastic description surrogate data sets can in turn be generated allowing to work out statistical features of the complex sea state in general and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics.

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