Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 17: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Dynamics: Dynamics of Team and Network Formation
SOE 17.3: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 9. März 2016, 16:00–16:15, H36
Why a hypothetical 4-point rule would be good for soccer — •Andreas Heuer1, Dennis Riedl1,2, and Bernd Strauss2 — 1Institute f. Phys. Chemistry, WWU Münster — 2Institute of Sport and Exercise Sciences, WWU Münster
It is shown how the rules of a soccer match influence the actual outcome via the impact of psychological effects [1]. More specifically, we present a statistical framework which allows one to define the theoretical distribution of final goal differences. Comparison with the actual distribution, determined for different international leagues, reveals significant deviations. They are mainly reflected by an increase of the actual number of draws. This effect is stronger in the case of the 2-point rule (mainly before 1995) as compared to the 3-point rule. Extrapolation suggests that in case of a hypothetical 4-point rule this effect should disappear. Since the increased number of draws reflects a more passive behavior during the final stage of a match [2,3], the introduction of the 4-point rule would thus very likely improve the quality of soccer matches. We show that this result is in quantitative agreement with the prediction of the prospect theory [4], describing the human behavior in different socio-economic situations.
[1] D Riedl, B. Strauss, A. Heuer, J. Sport Exerc. Psychol. 37, 316-326 (2015).
[2] A. Heuer, O. Rubner, PloS ONE 7/11, e47678 (2012).
[3] A. Heuer, Der perfekte Tipp - Statistik des Fußballspiels, Wiley-VCH, Weinheim (2012).
[4] D. Kahnemann, Thinking: fast and slow, Allen Lane (2011).