Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 3: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (joint session SOE / DY / BP)
SOE 3.6: Vortrag
Montag, 7. März 2016, 11:15–11:30, H36
Controlling recurrent epidemics on temporal networks — •Vitaly Belik1,2, Florian Fiebig1, Hartmut H K Lentz3, and Philipp Hövel1,4 — 1Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin — 2Helmholtz Zentrum für Infektionsforschung, Braunschweig — 3Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Greifswald — 4Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Berlin, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
We consider a rucurrent epidemic on a temporal network. The goal of the control is to reduce the prevalence or make the epidemic extinct, respectively. To this end we propose a protocol based on rewiring the edges away from infected nodes, after they are detected as those: instead of an infected node, we randomly choose a healthy one (or perceived as such). In contrast to coevolutionary adaptive networks, the intrinsic dynamics of the network is taken into account by our approach alongside with the adaptive rewiring. The proposed control scheme significantly expands the range of a disease-free parameter region. For example, on the network of German pig trade, diseases with detection times up to 10 days and infectious periods up to 3 months could be efficiently controlled by our method [1]. Thus changing the behaviour of trading partners could have significant impact on the epidemic outcome.
[1]V Belik, F Fiebig, HHK Lentz, P Hövel arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.04054