DPG Phi
Verhandlungen
Verhandlungen
DPG

Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Aktualisierungen | Downloads | Hilfe

BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik

BP 50: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (Joint Session SOE/DY/BP)

BP 50.5: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 23. März 2017, 10:45–11:00, GÖR 226

Surveillance for outbreak detection in livestock-trade networks — •Philipp Hövel1, Frederik Schirdewahn1, Andreas Koher1, Vitaly Belik2, Hartmut H. K. Lentz3, and Vittoria Colizza41TU Berlin — 2FU Berlin — 3Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut — 4INSERM Paris

We analyze a temporal network of livestock trade and present results of numerical simulations of epidemiological dynamics. The considered network is the backbone of the pig trade in Germany [1], which forms a major route of disease spreading between agricultural premises. The network is comprised of farms connected by a link, if animals are traded between them. We propose a concept for epidemic surveillance generally performed on a subset of the system due to limited resources. The goal is to identify agricultural holdings that are more likely to be infected during the early phase of an epidemic outbreak. These farms, which we call sentinels [2], are excellent candidates to monitor the whole network. To identify potential sentinel nodes, we determine most probable transmission routes by calculating functional clusters. These clusters are formed by nodes that have similar invasion paths. Then, we select sentinels by choosing nodes out of every cluster. We show that any epidemic outbreak can be reliably detected at an early stage by monitoring a small number of those sentinels.

[1] H. H. K. Lentz, A. Koher, P. Hövel, J. Gethmann, C. Sauter-Louis, T. Selhorst, and F. Conraths, PLoS ONE, 11, e0155196 (2016). [2] P. Bajardi, A. Barrat, L. Savini, V. Colizza, J. Roy. Soc. Interface 9, 2814 (2012).

100% | Mobil-Ansicht | English Version | Kontakt/Impressum/Datenschutz
DPG-Physik > DPG-Verhandlungen > 2017 > Dresden