Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 44: Statistical Physics (general)

DY 44.6: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 23. März 2017, 11:30–11:45, ZEU 147

The microfoundation of deflation; simulations based on the Ising model in industrial networks — •Kei Murakami, Fujio Toriumi, and Hirotada Ohashi — The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Deflation, the phenomenon that the overall price level decreases with the negative inflation rate, is one of the most serious problems in modern economy, especially in Japan in these 20 years. It has been deeply discussed why deflation occurs and price levels fluctuate by using macroeconomic models, which describe macroscopic prices as the integrations of microscopic prices. However, these models generally fail to explain actual price fluctuations so far, and it might need to introduce perspectives of statistical physics including complex systems. This study attempts to reveal mechanisms of macroscopic price fluctuations in the framework of statistical physics considering interactions among microscopic prices. We make networks from actual data of industrial interrelationships in Japan and apply the ferromagnetic Ising model in them to deal with such interactions among price fluctuations of industries and to express the macroeconomic price index as well. The results show that under some parameters the phase transition occurs, and then most prices of industries decrease or increase all together. This phase transition can be considered as the indication of deflation or inflation. This study could provide new insights into the mechanisms of deflation and help make appropriate economic policies.