Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 2: Social Systems I

SOE 2.3: Vortrag

Montag, 20. März 2017, 10:30–10:45, GÖR 226

Influences of Norm Change and Bounded Rational Decision Making on Sustainability Transitions in a Two Sector Economic Growth Model — •Jakob Kolb^{1, 2} and Jobst Heitzig¹ — ¹Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam — ²Humboldt Universität, Berlin

The Anthropocene is thought of as the age of the humans, where in the context of modeling, man-made processes and environmental dynamics can not be treated separately anymore. It is at the core of human agency, to keep the trajectory of this coupled system within the boundaries of a save and just operating space, to ensure prosperity for future generations. In all the common business-as-usual scenarios of future economic development and GHG emissions, this is not likely to happen. Therefore, we aim at investigating sustainability transitions towards independence from fossil resources. The German Energiewende has proven that besides economic realities, social dynamics such as opinion spreading can play a significant role in the choice of energy sources and thereby resource dependence of a society. Consequently, we study the co-dependence and co-evolution of social, economic and resource dynamic processes. Since we are interested in qualitative behavior of this complex system such as transient behavior and phase transitions rather than quantitative predictions, we use a conceptual model for our studies. This model combines a resource-dependent two-sector economic growth model with heterogeneous households with Fast and Frugal heuristics for household decision making, as well as an adaptive network approach to norm change amongst households.