Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik
BP 20: Statistical Physics of Biological Systems DY (joint session DY/BP)
BP 20.6: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 14. März 2018, 11:15–11:30, BH-N 333
Local weather driven model for the potential West Nile Virus spread in Germany — •Suman Bhowmick1,3, Hartmut H. K. Lentz1, Philipp Lorentz2, Philipp Lorentz Hövel2, and Igor Sokolov3 — 1Institut für Epidemiologie, Friedrich Loeffler Institut, Germany — 2Institut für Theoretische Physik, TU Berlin, Germany — 3Institut für Physik, HU Berlin, Germany
We endeavoured to explore the possible role of the migratory birds in the potential spread of West Nile Virus (WNV) in Germany through a compartment based, mechanistic model. It is of SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) type to decipher the intricacy of the spreading dynamics of the WNV. The parameters associated with the model are temperature driven. In addition to that we have considered the seasonal appearance and disappearance of the migratory birds. As results, we will present the numerical solutions of the local infection model as well as an analytical expression for the basic reproduction number R0 and its dependence on the temperature. The phase plots demonstrate two very different kinds of dynamics in Germany. In the north where the temperature is quite low, the phase portrait shows the stable nontrivial equilibrium where as in the south due to the warmer weather, we have found stable limit cyclic behaviour. Potential risk map of the spread of WNV shall be investigated through the coupling of local ODE model with the constructed migratory birds network. Keywords Epidemiological model, Bird migration, Network, Sensitivity analysis, Vector borne disease