Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 7: Poster
SOE 7.31: Poster
Montag, 12. März 2018, 17:00–20:00, Poster E
Risk assessment of introduction of African Swine Fever (ASF) to disease free regions of Poland. Effective distance and Monte Carlo approaches — •Andrzej Jarynowski1,2 and Vitaly Belik2 — 1Interdisciplinary Research Institute, Wroclaw, Poland — 2Institute for Veterinary Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Free University of Berlin
African Swine Fever (ASF) is viral infection which causes acute disease in domestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease in humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming, is substantial. Recent rapid propagation of the (ASF) from East to West of Europe encouraged us to prepare risk assessment and predict future geographical transmission paths.
We analyze 380 Polish counties (poviats), where 23 (located in Northeast Poland) have been affected (until 10.12.2017) for spatial propagation (risk assessment for future). We choose pseudo gravity propagation model by taking into account: swine amount significance, disease vectors (wild boards) significance, pork production chain significance, human failure to restrictions. We use effective distances methodology (Phys Rev E 95, 012313, 2017) as well as standard Monte Carlo simulation and fitted parameters for both approaches.
We have reconstructed the most probable infection paths for affected Polish counties with both methods. With Monte Carlo model, we project few likely scenarios for future spread with risk assessment based on social network analysis.