Dresden 2020 – scientific programme

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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie

AKE 6: Climatic Response to Emission Scenarios

AKE 6.1: Topical Talk

Monday, March 16, 2020, 17:15–17:45, DÜL

How soon would we see a benefit from emissions reduction? — •Sebastian Milinski — Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg

When do we expect so see a response in the climate system after a reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions? In this presentation I will introduce how we can use state-of-the-art global climate models to investigate when and how the global mean surface temperature responds in a mitigation scenario where emissions are reduced, compared to a non-mitigation scenario where emissions continue to grow.

Determining the time when a benefit from emissions reduction can be detected is mainly affected by two sources of uncertainty: quasi-random internal variability and disagreement between different climate models. While internal variability dominates the uncertainty in the short-term, model response uncertainty dominates in the mid- and long-term. I will separate and quantify the contribution from each source of uncertainty to arrive at an estimate for how soon we could expect to see a benefit from a reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions.