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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 2: Climate, Climate modelling & Energy

UP 2.1: Invited Talk

Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 09:50–10:20, HSZ 105

Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions — •Johanna Baehr — Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg

Skillful seasonal climate predictions for European climate remain a formidable challenge. I will present recent progress in predicting European climate variability using prediction systems based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). In the presentation, I will challenge the current practice in seasonal climate predictions to focus on the analysis of the ensemble-mean forecast. In addition, I will suggest process-based narratives, which I will illustrate by analyzing seasonal re-forecasts for European summer and winter climate.