BPCPPDYSOE21 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 1: COVID-19 pandemics through the lens of physics (org.: Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad and Philipp Hövel)

SOE 1.1: Hauptvortrag

Montag, 22. März 2021, 09:00–09:40, SOEa

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: dynamics and containment — •Yuliya Kyrychko — Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, United Kingdom

COVID-19 disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has already brought unprecedented challenges for public health and resulted in huge numbers of cases and deaths worldwide. In this talk I will discuss mathematical models developed to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 spread in some regions of the UK and Ukraine. A particular emphasis will be made on the non-exponential distribution of infection and recovery times as well as age- and location-specific contact matrices used to represented mixing patterns. I will show how the model can be used to provide an accurate short-term forecast for the numbers and age distribution of cases and deaths, as well as the effects of different lockdown scenarios [1,2].

[1] Y.N. Kyrychko, K.B. Blyuss, I. Brovchenko (2020). Mathematical modelling of the dynamics and containment of COVID-19 in Ukraine . Nature Sci. Rep., 2020;10:1-11.DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-76710-1

[2] K.B. Blyuss, Y.N. Kyrychko, Effects of latency and age structure on the dynamics and containment of COVID-19, J.Theor.Biol. 2021; 513: 110587:DOI:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110587.